GBPOUD
الأحد، 31 يناير 2016
GBPNZD
This is just analysis , I will follow for trade setup on lower time frame
This is just analysis , I will follow for trade setup on lower time frame
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الجمعة، 29 يناير 2016
الخميس، 28 يناير 2016
الثلاثاء، 26 يناير 2016
الاثنين، 25 يناير 2016
الأحد، 24 يناير 2016
Double Top
A double top is a reversal pattern that is formed after there is an extended move up. The “tops” are peaks which are formed when the price hits a certain level that can’t be broken.
After hitting this level, the price will bounce off it slightly, but then return back to test the level again. If the price bounces off of that level again, then you have a DOUBLE top!
Notice how the second top was not able to break the high of the first top. This is a strong sign that a reversal is going to occur because it is telling us that the buying pressure is just about finished.
With the double top, we would place our entry order below the neckline because we are anticipating a reversal of the uptrend.
Looking at the chart you can see that the price breaks the neckline and makes a nice move down. Remember that double tops are a trend reversal formation so you’ll want to look for these after there is a strong uptrend.
You’ll also notice that the drop is approximately the same height as the double top formation. Keep that in mind because that’ll be useful in setting profit targets.
Double Bottom
The double bottom is also a trend reversal formation, but this time we are looking to go long instead of short. These formations occur after extended downtrends when two valleys or “bottoms” have been formed.
You can see from the chart above that after the previous downtrend, the price formed two valleys because it wasn’t able to go below a certain level.
Notice how the second bottom wasn’t able to significantly break the first bottom. This is a sign that the selling pressure is about finished, and that a reversal is about to occur.
The price broke the neckline and made a nice move up.
See how the price jumped by almost the same height as that of the double bottom formation?
Remember, just like double tops, double bottoms are also trend reversal formations. You’ll want to look for these after a strong downtrend.
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Head and Shoulders
Head and Shoulders
A head and shoulders pattern is also a trend reversal formation.
It is formed by a peak (shoulder), followed by a higher peak (head), and then another lower peak (shoulder). A “neckline” is drawn by connecting the lowest points of the two troughs. The slope of this line can either be up or down. Typically, when the slope is down, it produces a more reliable signal.
The head is the second peak and is the highest point in the pattern. The two shoulders also form peaks but do not exceed the height of the head.
With this formation, we put an entry order below the neckline.
We can also calculate a target by measuring the high point of the head to the neckline. This distance is approximately how far the price will move after it breaks the neckline.
We know you’re thinking to yourself, “the price kept moving even after it reached the target.”
And our response is, “DON”T BE GREEDY!”
Inverse Head and Shoulders
The name speaks for itself. It is basically a head and shoulders formation, except this time it’s upside down.
A valley is formed (shoulder), followed by an even lower valley (head), and then another higher valley (shoulder). These formations occur after extended downward movements.
Our target is calculated just like the head and shoulders pattern. Measure the distance between the head and the neckline, and that is approximately the distance that the price will move after it breaks the neckline.
If your target is hit, then be happy with your profits. However, there are trade management techniques where you can lock in some of your profits and still keep your trade open in case the price continues to move your way
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Ascending Triangles
Ascending triangles form when there is a resistance level and the market price continues to make higher lows. This is a sign that the bulls are slowly starting to gain momentum over the bears.
The story behind an ascending triangle is that each time the price reaches a certain high, there are several traders who are convinced about selling at that level, resulting in the price dropping back down.
On the other side, there are several traders who believe the price should be higher, and as the price begins to drop, buy higher than its previous low. The result is a struggle between the bulls and bears which ultimately converges into an ultimate showdown…
What we are looking for is a breakout to the upside since ascending triangles are generally bullish signals. When we see a breach of the resistance level the proper decision would be to go long.
Descending Triangles
Descending triangles are basically the opposite of ascending triangles. Sellers are continuing to put pressure on the buyers, and as a result, we start to see lower highs met by a strong support level.
Descending triangles are generally bearish signals. To take advantage of this, our goal is to position ourselves to go short if the price should breakout below the support level.
Symmetrical Triangles
The third type of triangle is the symmetrical triangle. Rather than having a horizontal support or resistance level, both the bulls and the bears create higher lows and lower highs and form an apex somewhere in the middle.
Unlike the ascending and descending triangles which are generally bullish and bearish signals, symmetrical triangles have NO directional bias. You must be ready to trade a breakout on either side!
In the case of the symmetrical triangle, you want to position yourself to be ready for both an upside or downside breakout. A perfect time to use the one-cancels-the-other (OCO) order! Don’t remember what an OCO order is? Go review your types of orders!
In this scenario, GBP/USD broke out on the upside and our long entry was triggered.
Breaking down the Triangle Breakouts
To help you memorize the different types of triangle breakouts, just think of facial breakouts.
Ascending triangles usually breakout to the upside. So when you think of ascending triangles, think of breaking out on your forehead.
Descending triangles usually breakout to the downside. So when you think of descending triangles, think of breaking out on your chin.
Symmetrical triangles can break either to the upside or the downside. So when you think of symmetrical triangles, think of breaking out on both your chin and forehead.
Here’s a quick and disgusting memory tickler:
Ascending triangle = Forehead breakout
Descending triangle = Chin breakout
Symmetrical triangle = Forehead OR chin breakout
EWWWW!!!!
Gross eh? But we bet you’ll remember it!
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Strong Trend Line
A lot of traders still don’t understand how to draw a strong high probability trend line. They can make the difference between great profits and great losses. Trend lines tend to be more reliable on the bigger time frame’s such as the 4 hour, daily and weekly charts.
Here’s my little guide on how to find and draw the best trend lines in forex.
Drawing strong trend lines in falling markets (downward sloping trend line).
Using Trend Lines
Trend lines have many uses, but the main ones are: trend line bounces, and trend line breaks. Check out the picture below.
This trend line has had three bounce so it's now active. Now that the price is approaching that line again, what will happen? Well the trend line will either continue to hold or will break the line. So what happened this time?
Wow it broke and it climbed 200 pips!
This trend line was based on three points. On the fourth approach, the trend line tried to act as resistance. If it had succeeded in acting as an area of resistance the price would have turned around and headed back down. However, the bullish movement was too strong. That means the bearish trend is over and a bullish trend is starting.
Now take a look at a trend line bounce.
Again, this trend line has had three bounces so it is now active. As you can see in the picture, the price is approaching the line a fourth time. The price is either going to break the trend line or bounce away from it. This time it bounced.
Look, it bounced and went up 150 pips!
If you read about candles in the previous section, you will have noticed, that in the picture above, there was an indecision (reversal) candle on the trend line. You might technically think that because the wick was below the line the trend line was broken. Well that's where it gets tough!
There are three schools of thought on what constitutes a trend line break. Strict, moderate and lax.
Strict - These trend line users believe, that as soon as a candle passes through a trend line the line is broken, and a trade can be entered.
Moderate - These trend line users believe, that as long as a candles body does not close beyond the trend line the line is not broken. So a wick can poke through the line, like you saw in the image above, but as long as the body doesn't then the trend line is still active.
Lax - These trend line users believe, that a candle must first break through the line and then the body must close beyond. When the next candle opens beyond the line they finally consider the line broken.
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